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    <title>Nolan Tong — Battery Intelligence</title>
    <link>https://nolan-ronbay.org/</link>
    <description>Independent research on batteries, energy and mobility.</description>
    <language>en</language>
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    <lastBuildDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2026 00:05:01 GMT</lastBuildDate>
    <item>
      <title><![CDATA[The Origin Vise: How IAA and TCA Close Around Europe's Battery Supply Chain]]></title>
      <link>https://nolan-ronbay.org/research/eu-iaa-tca-origin-vise/</link>
      <guid>https://nolan-ronbay.org/research/eu-iaa-tca-origin-vise/</guid>
      <pubDate>Sun, 13 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <description><![CDATA[The IAA and TCA are two independent origin-locking mechanisms converging on Europe's cathode supply chain. China controls 81.3% of global CAM output; Europe's own capacity covers less than 30% of its cathode demand (2025 estimate), against 700–1,000 GWh of projected 2030 battery demand. The cell-level cost gap is $41–43/kWh (T&E 2025), narrowing to ~$14/kWh by 2030 only if European yield and automation catch up. TCA origin thresholds of 55/70/65% take effect 1 January 2027; IAA procurement rules reach full force from 1 January 2029, per law-firm readings. EcoPro BM runs the only Korean CAM plant in commercial production in the EU (54 kt, ~32 GWh); four Chinese plants totaling ~150 kt (~88 GWh) ramp through 2028.]]></description>
      <category>Industry Insights</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title><![CDATA[What 10,000 Tonnes of Cathode Is Actually Worth in GWh]]></title>
      <link>https://nolan-ronbay.org/research/10kt-cathode-to-gwh-conversion/</link>
      <guid>https://nolan-ronbay.org/research/10kt-cathode-to-gwh-conversion/</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <description><![CDATA[The same 10,000 tonnes of cathode active material yields 7.1 GWh in NCM811 but only 2.8 GWh in NFPP sodium-ion — a 2.5× spread the industry's '1,600 t/GWh' rule cannot capture. This handbook traces that rule to its 2021 NCM523/622 origin, lays out a transparent two-layer conversion chain (chemistry × yield), and provides a complete eight-material table with anchor verifications. Official disclosures from five companies are cross-referenced against the model at the same order of magnitude. The article also clarifies SOC, N/P ratio, and what they do not change in the t/GWh calculation.]]></description>
      <category>Cathode R&D</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title><![CDATA[The Queue Is Not a Pipeline: Why US Storage Lives or Dies on Transmission]]></title>
      <link>https://nolan-ronbay.org/research/us-storage-transmission/</link>
      <guid>https://nolan-ronbay.org/research/us-storage-transmission/</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <description><![CDATA[The US interconnection queue held about 2,060GW at end-2025, including roughly 749GW of storage, but only 13.1% of capacity entering the queue in 2000–2020 had reached operation. This analysis shows why batteries can shift electricity across hours but cannot replace transmission across regions—and why a 61-month median interconnection timeline, scarce high-voltage buildout and network-upgrade exposure increasingly determine which storage projects can be financed and built. As data-center demand rises, grid location, cost allocation and bankable interconnection rights are becoming more decisive than another marginal reduction in battery-cell cost.]]></description>
      <category>Industry Insights</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title><![CDATA[The Sodium Crossover Is a Scale Problem]]></title>
      <link>https://nolan-ronbay.org/research/lfp-na-ion-cost-crossover/</link>
      <guid>https://nolan-ronbay.org/research/lfp-na-ion-cost-crossover/</guid>
      <pubDate>Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <description><![CDATA[Sodium-ion does not beat LFP at one fixed lithium price. The answer moves with NFPP cathode cost, hard-carbon scale and China's consumption tax. This analysis rebuilds the crossover from the cell BOM: LFP follows a lithium-linked straight line, while NFPP sodium-ion falls from CNY 0.441/Wh at 1GWh to CNY 0.317/Wh at 25GWh and CNY 0.261/Wh at 50GWh. At 25GWh, the no-tax lithium carbonate crossover is RMB 75,000/t; a 4% tax lowers it to RMB 54,000/t. The result is a practical map of the material prices and qualified scale that sodium-ion must deliver.]]></description>
      <category>Industry Insights</category>
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